#7 Duke vs. #20 Wisconsin Halftime Podcast

#10 Duke vs. Eastern Kentucky Halftime Podcast

Duke's up 34-12 at the break. A few thoughts:

A Preliminary Statistical Analysis of the 2007-08 Duke Men’s Basketball Team

A few months ago a super smart friend of mine named James put together a table analyzing the individual contributions from players on the 2006-07 Duke Men’s Basketball Team. The table, which is based on an accepted metric (created by The Wages of Wins), analyzes the “efficiency” of individuals on a team by assigning each player a Win Score. Five games into the 2007-08 season, I thought it was about time to see what the numbers say. Before we get into the analysis, let's go over a few terms:

Win Score = Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers - ½Free Throw Attempts - ½Personal Fouls

Win Score per Minute (a more accurate tool to compare players who have a significant disparity in minutes played) = Win Score/Min (duh)

PAWS (Position Adjusted Win Score) is used to compare a player to an average player at the position.

Average Win Score/minute values for each position

Center: 0.225
Power Forward: 0.215
Small Forward: 0.152
Shooting Guard: 0.132
Point Guard: 0.128

PAWS (Position Adjusted Win Score) = Win Score – (Average Win Score at Position Played * Minutes Played)

PAWS/min = Win Score per minute –Average Win Score at Position Played

If you’d like to read more about last year’s team, you can follow this link to our analysis article. After watching Duke win the Maui Invitational, I was interested to see how the numbers would look on our newly constructed team. I got in touch with James, and he was able to put together a table from the first five games of the season:

2007-08 Duke Men's Basketball Preliminary Statistical Analysis

What do all these numbers mean? Thanks to James, we have some answers. Here we go :

1. Across the board, Win Score/min averages are way up. The numbers will probably fall back to earth when we begin ACC play, but they are very encouraging. Last year's top player was Josh McRoberts with a WS/min of .262. Zoubek, Pocius, Singler, King, and Scheyer are all besting that in the current campaign.

2. Kyle Singler is the star of the team so far. He's shooting 60% from the floor and 90% from the line, and he's also hitting the boards well. His turnovers are a bit high, but that's probably because he handles the ball so much. It looks like Duke’s found someone to replace Josh inside.

3. Brian Zoubek's numbers are particularly excellent, too. He's averaging 15 rebounds per 40 minutes, which is better than Shelden's old rate. He's shooting .611. Most importantly, he has cut his turnover rate in half, from an atrocious 6.30 per 40 minutes to a nice 2.94. He has decreased his fouls per 40 from 7.65 to 6.30, but that's still too high, considering he's only allowed 5 fouls per game (anyone remember the Blue-White Scrimmage?). Hopefully he can stay on the court more since he's Duke’s only player above 6'8.

4. Marty Pocius! Win Score has hated him ever since he set foot on campus because his defense, rebounding, passing...well, pretty much everything about him is bad. I'll chalk his current lofty position up to small sample size, but we'll see.

5. Jon Scheyer is shooting 50% this year (as opposed to 40% last year), and that makes a huge difference for him. He has also improved his rebounding-per-40 from 4 to 7, which makes him above average for a guard.

6. Gerald Henderson was promising last season, but he had room to improve across the board. So far, he's done that. FG%: +11%. 3FG%: +39%. REB: +19%.Fouls: -6%. Turnovers: -24%. Blocks: +225%. Are you as excited as I am about him?

7. Greg Paulus's AST/TO ratio has jumped from 1.2:1 to 2.3:1, and he has also doubled his steals rate. However, he isn't shooting any better, and he still rebounds poorly, so while he is now above average for a point guard, he's still only the 8th best player on the team.

8. Lance Thomas is also playing more efficiently than he did last year. It's remarkable that he's only committed 4 turnovers in 112 minutes. There's still a big hole in his game, however: besides Greg Paulus, he's the worst rebounder on the team, and he's standing under the basket all the time.

9. DeMarcus is his same old productive self. He gets a little better at everything each year. His team-leading 34 boards are particularly impressive: can he teach something to Lance?

10. Nolan Smith has started poorly. He's shooting .375, and he has only collected 2 rebounds in 72 minutes of play, giving him a handy average of 0.4 rpg. Taylor King, however, has done well for himself, particularly because he rebounds well and has a low turnover rate.

2007 Maui Invitational Postscript

With less than thirteen seconds left to go in the championship game of the 2007 Maui Invitational, the resounding sound filling the Lahaina Civic Center was a chant coming from a pack of Duke fans standing behind the Duke bench. The chant? “Our house! Our house!” Indeed, Maui seems to be becoming Duke’s home away from home, as the Blue Devils captured their record setting 4th consecutive Maui Invitational Championship (1992, 1997, 2001, 2007).

However, the championship game didn’t end without a scare. Marquette is a fast, guard-oriented, hard-nosed team that kept fighting and was able to take advantage of a turnover-prone stretch by the Blue Devils early in the second half to get in the game. The end of the game was especially nerve-racking as Duke played with the same unfocused, nervous, and confused mindset that was one of the hallmarks of last year’s team.

Although Duke nearly threw this game away with back to back turnovers in the games final minutes, Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler stepped up, put the team on their backs, and took this game over.

Big plays down the stretch

2:55 left
Gerald drives and puts it in off the glass to make the score 73-70

1:54 left
Kyle Singler takes a big charge in a close, two-point game.

45 seconds left
Demarcus Nelson makes a risky pass, yet Gerald is still (somehow) able to gather the ball and get fouled shooting. Then Gerald makes two pressure-filled free throws.

13 seconds left
Singler fouled after gathering a loose ball that fell out of Paulus’ hand and anyone could have picked up. Cool and confident at the line, Singler drains both free throws to seal the game.

One of the problems from last year’s team was that Duke didn’t know who to give the ball to in late game situations. It was obvious at the end of this game that the team still didn’t know where the ball should go (those two turnovers on errant passes illustrate that point). And with all the talent this team has, it is a legitimate question. In my mind, it’s become clear that Gerald should be our go to guy. He has reminded me of Kobe Bryant the last couple of games with his monstrous dunks, fade away jump shots, and overall athleticism.

I hope Coach K realizes that we should be giving the ball to Gerald at the end of games. Let him penetrate, he’ll either score, get fouled, or create an open shot for one of his teammates.

It’s also hard not to feel good about Kyle Singler right about now: 25 points and 8 rebounds and the 2007 Maui Invitational MVP. The kid has everything.

Watch out, this team is going to surprise people.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

#10 Duke vs. #13 Marquette Halftime Podcast

What a great first half! I'll be online for the second half if any of you want to discuss the game in real time (meebo application to your right). A few thoughts from the first half:

Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Here are my picks:

Green Bay (-3.5) over Detroit

Dallas (-14) over New York

Indianapolis (-10) over Atlanta

Denver over Chicago (-2)

Tennessee (-1) over Cincinnati

Buffalo over Jacksonville (-9)

Oakland over Kansas City (-6)

Cleveland (-4.5) over Houston

Seattle (-3) over St. Louis

New York Giants (-7.5) over Minnesota

New Orleans (-1) over Carolina

Washington over Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Arizona (-10) over San Francisco

Baltimore over San Diego (-9.5)

New England (-23) over Philadelphia

Pittsburgh (-15) over Pittsburgh

Duke vs. Notre Dame

I’m so antsy. Ten minutes until the Duke Football team takes the field at Notre Dame Stadium. It doesn’t matter that the Fighting Irish are 1-9, have suffered identical 38-0 defeats to Michigan and USC this year, and have lost to two service academies (Navy and Air Force). IT’S NOTRE DAME.

I was excited when the schedule came out earlier this year just to be playing Notre Dame. But I had no idea we would actually have a legitimate chance at winning (only a 7 point underdog AT Notre Dame). Let’s take a closer look at a few stats for the matchup:

Team Records

Duke: 1-9
Notre Dame: 1-9

Sagarin Computer Rating

Duke: 95
Notre Dame: 103

Bowl Game victories in the last 10 years

Duke: 0
Notre Dame: 0

I’m really excited but I've gotten used to our football team letting me down. Are we up for a repeat of the 1966 Duke-Notre Dame game?



Probably. But I don’t care. I'm still picking Duke. Let’s go baby.

Official Pick:

Duke 21
Notre Dame 17

SPECIAL UPDATE: Halftime Podcast

A Deeper Look into the 2007 Miami Dolphins: An Insider's Perspective

Thanks to everyone who linked to this article, including Deadspin. However, due to privacy concerns and a request made by the original source who provided information for this article, we are being forced to temporarily take down the post. Apparently, the Dolphins front office has nothing better to do than trying to track down inside information found on Scrapper Nation. Maybe the Dolphins would be halfway decent if they placed as much energy on their personnel moves. Sorry for the inconvenience...I really didn't think this would blow up so fast...Please don't hesitate to pop me an email if you have any questions or concerns.

Can Dwyane Wade save the Heat?

Hey guys. Since the last post, New Orleans has lost twice, and Chicago has finally chalked up a win. Is the NBA settling down after such an unpredictable opening week? Maybe. The Pacers and Clippers have also come down to earth, while the Blazers have rebounded from their 0-3 start to win 3 in a row and make .500.

The Wizards got a win today, so they are no longer among the ranks of the winless. They were a promising team last year before Gilbert Arenas went down with the knee injury, and behind the leadership of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison they should rise back to respectability.

But what about the Heat? They're 0-5 and currently aggressively flirting with 0-6 against the Knicks. The offense has looked miserable against every team so far, with the exception of the Suns (go figure). Ricky Davis, brought in to carry the scoring load and fill the void left by Dwyane Wade, has been erratic and has drawn the ire of the Big Daddy on account of his refusal to throw the entry pass.


Will Wade be able to turn this team around? The answer is a resounding yes. It might not happen immediately, as he will need to get his rhythm and conditioning back, but he is still one of the best (if not the best) players in the league.

Right now its not difficult to defend the Heat. Teams have been successfully throwing the double team at Shaq, and the streaky shooting of Davis, Smush Parker, and Jason Williams has made the strategy highly effective.

When Wade comes back this will all change. Teams will have to scheme to contain him. Shaq will become much more effective. Dorell Wright's value will skyrocket, as he will be expected to focus on defense and rebounding, two of his strengths, rather than scoring.

Fellow Heat fans: I know this is tough. The good news is that...

BREAKING NEWS: Right now there are 19 seconds left in the game against the Knicks and the Heat have a 1 point lead.

Jason Williams stole the ball! Alright! He just knocked down both free throws after being fouled by David Lee. 3 point Heat lead with 10 seconds left.

Marbury misses the 3 as time expires! Yeah! The Heat get their first win of the season.

So, where was I? Right, the good news is that...well, now we've got that monkey off of our collective backs. And with Wade returning as early as Tuesday against Charlotte, the Heat will start charging up the rankings. Thanks to Chicago and Washington's woeful starts, the Heat aren't too far back.

A Tale of Two Teams

Yesterday I posted some of the early surprises of the young NBA season, but I failed to mention the New Orleans Hornets. I received literally dozens of angry emails from Hornets fans. To those who emailed me, I say this: I was waiting until today to heap praise upon your oft-maligned yet suddenly successful squadron.

Today we will look at two teams, the New Orleans Hornets and the Chicago Bulls, which have started their seasons 4-0 and 0-4, respectively. But why, Charlie? Well, reader, you must not have followed the NBA last season. I'll tell you exactly why.

Coming into this season, the Hornets' roster was shrouded in question marks, while the Bulls seemed mortal locks to improve upon last year's success. Now? The Hornets are one of the best surprises of the season and the Bulls are floundering, keeping company with my pitifully Wade-less Miami Heat in the gutter of the NBA.

Will the Bulls continue to struggle? Maybe, but probably not. Will the Hornets come back down to Earth and start displaying the mediocrity we've come to expect of them? Again, maybe, but probably not. Tim Legler of ESPN has boldly declared these Hornets a "legit playoff team".



After following their game last night against the Lakers on Yahoo GameChannel (No, I don't have anything better to do), I have to draw the same conclusion as Legler. The Hornets are rolling on all cylinders, and their chemistry this early in the season bodes very well for their long term chances.

Chris Paul has matured into arguably the game's best young point guard (and I am a big Deron Williams fan, so that is saying a lot), and if last night is any indication, Peja has recovered some of that old Sacramento magic. David West will make an All-Star team at some point in his career, and the Hornets' investment in Tyson Chandler is paying off big time.

I'm trying to remember who Chandler used to play for...who was it? I remember they traded him for virtually nothing....oh, right! It was the Bulls!



Will the Bulls pull a 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks and recover from their rough start to post the best record in the league? No. Will they rediscover their identity and still manage to finish at or near the top of the Eastern Conference? Yes sir or madam.

The Bulls have been godawful thus far, but they have a lot going for them. Franchise savior Joakim Noah has recovered from his preseason injury and is ready to take some of the defensive load off of old Big Ben, and Tyrus Thomas has been taking advantage of his increased minutes to post solid numbers across the board.

They need their go-to trio of Deng, Hinrich, and Gordon to significantly up their percentages. Scott Skiles needs to take advantage of guys like Thomas and Sefolosha in the penetration game. When the Bulls can't get their jumpers to fall they are extremely vulnerable. Being able to consistently get to the line will help offset those rough nights.

While I would love to see them go 0-82 and suffer mightily for the pain they caused me and my Heat last year in the playoffs, I will readily admit that these Bulls will probably turn it around and steadily climb their way to the top of the standings. That should not surprise anyone.

The real surprise is the Hornets. Keep your eyes on that team.

NBA Week 1 Surprises

Week 1 is in the books. I'm going to briefly run down some of the early season surprises.


Mike Dunleavy - Even though I predicted his success, I didn't expect it to be this convincing this early. Through the first week of play, Dunleavy is averaging 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists on 49% shooting.

LaMarcus Aldridge - The Scrapper's pick for Most Improved Player looks like it might turn out to be accurate. Aldridge dropped 27 on Tim Duncan in the season opener and almost singlehandedly rallied the Blazers back against the Rockets in the 4th quarter on Saturday night.

The Atlanta Hawks - Beating the regular season champion Dallas Mavericks on opening night was impressive, but carrying that through into a nailbiter against the Pistons showed that the Hawks are legit this year.

Kevin Durant - Look, I know he was amazing at Texas. But even you didn't expect him to light it up like he has in his first few games, right? After shaking off some rust in his opening half, Durant has been virtually unstoppable. Read some of the post-game quotes from Raja Bell and Shawn Marion after Durant put a scare into them Thursday night.

The Chicago Bulls - The up and coming Eastern Conference juggernaut, picked by many pundits to post the East's best record and make it at least to the Conference Finals, has struggled out of the gates, going 0-3 in its first week of play.

The LA Lakers - Will their surprising early success be enough to convince Kobe to stay? Probably not. Still, as a Lakers fan you have to be encouraged seeing the role players and the bench produce like this. There may be hope in post-Kobe LA.

Here are some highlights from the first week of play, courtesy of the NBA. If you're an NBA fan and a frequent YouTube user, subscribe to the NBA channel. It is great.