Cavs-Spurs Finals Preview

When I want my NBA fix, I go to my main man Charlie T. This cat knows his stuff.
-The Scrapper

Tonight's the night. Loyal Scrapper fans, I’m honored to have the privilege of previewing the NBA Finals for you. If you don’t like my post, please let me and The Scrapper know in the comments so that he can fire me.

Spurs-Cavs has the potential to be a tremendous matchup, perhaps slightly reminiscent of the Chicago-Utah series of the mid-90s. We have a similar setup on both sides – Cleveland, like those Jordan Bulls, is a team built around a megastar going up against a more conventional, old-school, fundamental team in the Spurs. The Stockton-Malone-Sloan Jazz had a lot in common with today’s Spurs – they had their all-stars but they also counted on significant contributions from their role players (Hornacek, Ostertag, etc.).

Clearly this is far from a bulletproof analogy. The obvious missing piece in the Bulls-Cavs comparison is Scottie Pippen. One of the NBA’s 50 greatest, Cleveland has no equivalent to Pippen. Larry Hughes? In Danny Ferry’s wildest dreams, maybe, but not in reality. The Cavs are going to rely on Lebron even more than the Bulls relied on Jordan, and it remains to be seen whether or not he’s up to the task. Like most, I remain skeptical. Even if Lebron exceeds all reasonable expectations, I don’t see the Cavs being able to topple this Spurs team.

Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the matchups (based on projected starters)

PG – Tony Parker vs. Daniel Gibson

Parker has had a breakout season. We knew he was good, but I’m not sure anyone knew he could take his game to these heights (maybe not even the Spurs – remember the Jason Kidd offseason?). He’s really focused his game on penetration, becoming a much more efficient scorer and distributor. He has a speed advantage against his defender almost every time he steps on the court, but this matchup with Gibson could be one of the exceptions.

Gibson has really come out of nowhere and stolen some of Lebron’s thunder lately. After Lebron’s legendary performance in Game 5, ‘Boobie’ (I’m not a fan of that nickname at all) lit it up in Game 6, sticking dagger after dagger into the Pistons’ hearts. He was good but not spectacular at Texas, but he has embraced the spotlight and has given the Cavs exactly what they needed – reliable outside shooting and energy. Against the Pistons, he was something of a liability on the defensive end. Of course, he was guarding Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, and sometimes Tayshaun Prince (yikes). He’ll have a much better opportunity against the Spurs. He is better suited to guard a quick guard like Tony Parker than a big, post-up guard like Billups.

This is a critical matchup. Gibson has seemed immune to the pressure of the big stage thus far, and we’ll see if he can keep up his fearless play under the ultimate spotlight, with the whole world watching. The Finals are practically home away from home to Tony Parker and the Spurs at this point, and nerves shouldn’t be an issue.

The advantage here clearly goes to Parker, and I expect him to get the better of Gibson night in and night out. If he’s lazy on defense, however, Gibson will make him pay, and if Gibson can somehow contain Parker on his penetration, it will provide a critical boost to the Cavs defense.

SG – Manu Ginobili vs. Larry Hughes

I’m listing Manu here because even though he comes off the bench, he’s clearly the Spurs’ go-to guy at the shooting guard position. Manu’s game hasn’t changed much since he made his mark on the league in the Spurs’ earlier title runs. He’s added a bald-spot and better finishing ability to his already consistent three-point shooting and penetration skills. He’s also become a better defender, adding the flop to his arsenal. For a nice video of his finishing ability, check out this YouTube clip:

Larry Hughes, one of Cavs’ GM Danny Ferry’s critical free agent acquisitions, has failed to live up to the lofty expectations placed upon his shoulders when he signed with the Cavs. The team and its fans hoped that he could play Pippen to Lebron’s Jordan, but it has become clear over these past two seasons that Hughes’ potential is limited. He’s a terrific defender who is adept at playing the passing lanes and coming up with the steal. His three-point shooting is somewhat unreliable, yet he shows little hesitation in jacking up the 3 off the kickout. As noted by Steve Kerr during game 6, his strength is penetration, and the Cavs are going to need him to make good decisions.

Hughes is quick enough, strong enough, and savvy enough to keep up with Manu. We’ll see if he can handle the spotlight. His health is also a concern – though he played through his foot injury in the Pistons series, we’ll see if he can continue to keep it up against a tougher team with more aggressive defenders.

I’m being generous to the Cavs and calling this a wash, because if Hughes plays up to his potential he can theoretically keep up with Manu. But then again, who knows? Maybe Hughes will explode and Manu will choke and I’ll be eating my words.

SF – Bruce Bowen vs. Lebron James

This has been the matchup most publicized thus far, and I’m sure that if you’ve made your way here you’ve read a Finals preview somewhere else as well, so I’m not going to harp on it much. As has been stated by countless others, Bowen’s traditional weakness as a defender has been in the post against bigger players, and while the post-up game isn’t one of Lebron’s strengths, he should be able to score against Bowen without much trouble. Of course, this assumes that the Spurs use single coverage on Lebron. I suspect that they will, but don’t expect them to be as slow to double as the Pistons were. Popovich is a much better coach than Flip Saunders, especially on the defensive end, and we’re not going to see another string of 25 straight out of Lebron in this series.

The advantage is clearly to the Cavs. It will be interesting to see if Bowen can keep up his solid three point shooting and make Lebron pay for his sometimes uninspired defense.

PF – Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden

After watching Tim Duncan demolish Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer, I feel bad for Drew Gooden in this series. Gooden is a decent enough offensive player, but he’s going to be stymied by Duncan every time he makes a move, with his best chance to score coming off pick-and-pops with Lebron.

On the other end, Duncan is going to make the Cavs pay on every possession. The Cavs’ only realistic hope here is that Varejao’s hair aggravates Duncan to the point that he loses control and gets ejected/suspended. Otherwise, there’s no stopping this guy. At this point, in my mind, he’s undoubtedly the best power forward of all time.

Advantage: Spurs in a landslide. Look for serious numbers out of Duncan, especially on the defensive end. Gooden and Varejao had limited success with their interior scoring against the Pistons, and it is going to be exponentially more difficult to score against Duncan, the perennial anchor of the All-NBA Defensive First Team. One caveat here: Duncan is a terrific interior help defender, and if Lebron is aggressive enough going to the hoop, he may be able to get Duncan into foul trouble, which could simplify the San Antonio offense and allow the Cavs to focus more on Ginobili and Parker.

C – Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Fabricio Oberto

The Cavs must win this matchup if they expect to compete with the Spurs in this series. We may see some switching here, as Duncan may be forced to guard Big Z if he gets it going. Expect to see Oberto (or possibly even Elson) start against Ilgauskas, however, because of Z’s tendency to play the pick-and-pop game. Duncan would prefer to roam the paint, and San Antonio is better off assigning Oberto or Elson to irritate Ilgauskas and get a hand in his face on those jumpers.

Ilgauskas has shown throughout his career and especially in this last series against the Pistons that he can be a very effective offensive rebounder. His length allows him to outreach defenders and get put-backs. With Duncan in the lane, these opportunities will be limited. If Varejao is in the game, Duncan will be able to sag off and help on the offensive boards. If he is matched up against Gooden (and if Gooden can consistently hit that 15-foot jumper), the lane should open up for Ilgauskas to have more chances at the tip-in. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

The advantage here goes to the Cavs, though it could swing to the Spurs if Duncan switches onto Ilgauskas.

BENCH:

Cleveland: Anderson Varejao, Donyell Marshall, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, Damon Jones.

At this point we all know what to expect from Varejao, and his continued contribution will be vital to the Cavs’ hopes. Marshall and Jones are both going to be expected to come in cold and hit the open 3, but expect to see much more of Marshall than Jones in this series. The Spurs’ offensive execution is flawless, and Jones is too old and too slow to be counted on at the defensive end. As in the Pistons series, we may see Eric Snow in at the end of close games, especially if Tony Parker is abusing Daniel Gibson. Snow probably won’t have as much success against the quicker Parker as he did against Chauncey Billups, though, so his playing time will be limited.

Pavlovic could really make a difference. He has displayed fearlessness in big moments, but unfortunately, he has fearlessly made poor decisions. It seemed as if he drew an offensive foul every time the Cavs turned to him for offensive production. That won’t cut it against this San Antonio team.

San Antonio: Michael Finley, Francisco Elson, Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Jacque Vaughn.

San Antonio’s veteran core is supplemented by proven winners coming off the bench. Whether it’s one of the great clutch performers of playoff history (Horry), the great white hope (Barry), or the Flying Dutchman (Elson), the Spurs know that they can count on these guys to come in and play mistake-free basketball. Michael Finley gives them an extra dimension: he’s a proven scorer who has improved his three point shooting and thus further spaces the floor, opening up space in the paint for Duncan to go to work. Vaughn will spell Tony Parker. Look for him to make good decisions with the ball, running the offense and spotting up for the 15-18 foot jumper.

The advantage here is clearly with San Antonio. Their bench is full of proven winners who will not turn the ball over and who know what it takes to succeed in the postseason. If the Spurs are up big in the closeout game, don’t be surprised to see Brent Barry attempt to recreate this magical moment in the waning minutes:

COACHING STAFF: Gregg Popovich vs. Mike Brown.

This is another storyline that has been beaten to death. By now we are all aware of the fact that Mike Brown worked under Popovich in San Antonio and designed his system based on what he learned from Pop. Unfortunately, Popovich is at the top of his game, and don’t look for Brown to be able to pull off any surprises here. Advantage: Spurs. It’s like arm wrestling your Dad when you’re a little kid. You’re not going to win.

CONCLUSION:

All of these matchup previews are written under the assumption that these games will be competitive and close. That’s what we should expect, right? It’s the NBA Finals. Unfortunately, that may not be what we actually get. This Spurs team is engineered for this moment, and every man on that roster knows and accepts his role. They have a superior roster and a superior coaching staff. Lebron is the X factor. If he can really make ‘The Leap’, and give heroic performances night in and night out, this series could go the distance, and the Cavs could theoretically pull it out. Unfortunately for all the Cleveland fans, this Spurs team is an absolute juggernaut, and the chances of them losing this series are extraordinarily slim.

The Prediction: I’m going to be very, very generous and say Spurs in six. I’m giving the Cavs the benefit of the doubt here. I think that there will be at least one and possibly two games in which the pieces just fall the right way for Cleveland: Lebron will be unstoppable, Gibson and Hughes will make their shots, Duncan will get into foul trouble, Damon Jones will actually make a meaningful contribution, etc. With that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs pull off the sweep. These guys are pros, and no matter how much everybody wants to see Lebron win the championship and officially claim the throne, I don’t see it happening. These Spurs are too good.

-Charlie