What a long, crazy draft. Some thoughts:
Best Picks of the Draft
Adrian Peterson (1st round, 7th overall)
Strength, speed, vision, you name it, this kid has everything. I think he is already one of the 10 best running backs in the league.
Greg Olsen (1st round, 31st overall)
Tall (6 foot 6), built (254 lbs), and speedy (4.51 40 time). There isn’t a doubt in my mind Greg Olsen will become a dynamic tight end in the NFL. Just for comparison, Dwayne Jarrett is two inches shorter (6-4), 35 pounds lighter (219 lbs), and has a slower 40 time (4.62).
Paul Posluszny (2nd round, 34th overall)
I’m shocked he fell out of the 1st round. The Bills were seriously considering taking the two-time Bednarik
Award winner (given annually to the nation’s best defensive player), in the first round. I think a lot of teams are going to regret passing on him. 
Ryan Kalil (2nd round, 59th overall)
There is no reason the best center in the draft should fall all the way to no.59. An instant starter for the Panthers, Kalil will become a perennial pro-bowler.
Buster Davis (3rd round, 69th overall)
A lot of teams passed on Buster because of his size (or lack thereof), but watch for him to become a superstar (a la London Fletcher).
Michael Bush (4th round, 100th overall)
A surefire first round pick if he had stayed healthy, the Raiders nabbing Michael Bush in the 4th round is absolute theft. The Raiders are stocked at running back and will let Bush take as much time as he needs to heel and get back to a 100%. A great pick.
Worst Picks of the Draft
Amobi Okoye (1st round, 10th overall)
Okoye is undersized and I don’t like drafting on potential. I find it unacceptable that the Texans didn’t draft an offensive lineman here. They easily could have moved down and taken Joe Staley later in the first round. The Texans again avoid filling their greatest need. I have a feeling it’s going to be a long year for Matt Schaub.
Michael Griffin (1st round, 19th overall)
Talk about a reach, Griffin was a late first round pick in almost all mock drafts and the Titans reach to take him at no.19. Honestly, I think this is the worst pick of the first round, maybe the whole draft. How do the Titans not take a wide receiver here? Vince Young is a developing player and he just lost one of his best receivers in Drew Bennett, and a dynamite back in Travis Henry. How do the Titans pass up Robert Meachem (6’2, 2.39 40 time)? Griffin will be a solid defensive player but not taking an offensive player here will set back Vince Young’s development.
Craig Davis (1st round, 30th overall)
A.J. Smith, you’ve proven you know your stuff, but this pick really makes me scratch my head. No one, and I mean NO ONE, had Craig Davis going in the first round. Even if Davis is your guy, you could have moved down all the way to the middle of the second round and still selected him. The Chargers will regret passing on Dwayne Jarrett.
Kevin Kolb (2nd round, 36th overall)
With their first pick in the draft, the Eagles take a quarterback? This is a terrible, terrible pick, in so many ways. The Eagles could have given Donovan an offensive weapon with this pick but instead, they select a player that won’t pay any dividends on the field for years to come. Terrible pick.
Teams with the best drafts
Buffalo Bills
Off-season departures of RB Willis McGahee and LB London Fletcher created huge voids at running back and linebacker. RB Marshawn Lynch and LB Paul Posluszny are tremendous picks and fill areas of great need.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had an unbelievable draft. Swapping picks with the Jets gave the Panthers four first day draft picks. LB Jon Beason could be an immediate starter and fills an important need due to Dan Morgan’s long history of concussions. The Panthers filled their second round with Trojans, selecting USC WR Dwayne Jarrett and C Ryan Kalil. Both players will be instant starters. The Panthers’ best pick of the draft might end up being DE Charles Johnson.
San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Willis will solidify the 49ers linebacking crew and will become a perennial pro bowler. I think the 49ers also made a great move trading up for OT Joe Staley, an area of great need for the 49ers. The 49ers’ best move of the draft was trading their 4th round pick for WR Darrell Jackson, a surefire no.1 wide receiver. Watch out for the 49ers offense next season. The combination of QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, and WR Darrel Jackson may make the 49ers one of the league’s most dynamic offenses.
Teams with the worst drafts
Houston Texans
The Texans needed to get help on the offensive line or at cornerback early in the draft and they didn’t get it done. I think Okoye is overrated and they filled the rest of their draft with mediocre talent.
Philadelphia Eagles
Although I really like the Eagles’ third round selection of power back, RB Tony Hunt, nothing can justify the Eagles taking a quarterback with the 36th pick in the draft. The Eagles have a small window to make a run at a championship and they drafted a player that won’t help them for years to come.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had a huge hole at wide receiver and they passed up on a potential superstar and hometown hero in Robert Meachem. RB Chris Henry was also a huge reach in the second round and all the wide receivers the Titans drafted in later rounds are mediocre. With a terrible draft and off-season (not to mention the Madden Curse set to wreck havoc on Vince Young next season), look for the Titans to struggle next year.
Teams that will most regret not addressing urgent needs
New York Giants
Although CB Aaron Ross and WR Steve Smith are tremendous picks, you have to wonder how the Giants passed up OT Joe Staley with the departure of starter Luke Petigout in the off-season. The Giants had an equally desperate need at linebacker.
Indianapolis Colts
I think Anthony Gonzalez fits the Colts offense perfectly and that Tony Ugoh is a solid addition to the Colts’ offensive line. However, after losing both starting cornerbacks, LB Cato June, and needing a lot of help at defensive line, the Colts may have made a tremendous mistake not choosing to address their defense needs. With their chief playoff foe, the New England Patriots, re-tooling their offensive weaponry, look for the gaping holes in the Colts defense to prevent a repeat trip to the Super Bowl.
Mystery Team
Cleveland Browns
There has to be a reason 21 teams passed on Brady Quinn. Everyone has been complimenting Browns’ GM, Phil Savage, on trading up for Brady Quinn, but will Browns fans be happy if Brady struggles mightily and the Cowboys take their likely top 10 pick in next year’s draft? This could also be a great move. People forget that for much of the year Brady Quinn was considered the consensus overall no.1 pick in the draft. What impresses me is the kid’s strength and attitude. Only time will tell on this one.
Best Trades of the Draft
1. New England snags Randy Moss for a 4th round pick
2. Carolina Panthers swap first round picks with the Jets and are able to nab the best center in the draft, Ryan Kalil, with the extra pick in the 2nd round.
3. Dallas Cowboys trade the Browns the no.22 pick in the first round for a second rounder and the Browns’ first rounder in next year’s draft (more than likely a top 10 pick)
4. 49ers get Darrel Jackson for only a 4th round pick.
The 2nd Round Quarterback
Why do teams take quarterbacks in the second round? It seems like most of the quarterbacks in the NFL were either first round picks or fell through the cracks and were drafted in later rounds or even went undrafted. Scouts spend a significant amount of time analyzing top-tier quarterbacks’ abilities. If those abilities don’t warrant a first round pick, why waste a second rounder on a quarterback? I would much rather take a quarterback later in the draft whose skills might not have been adequately assessed. Let’s take a look at all of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL (2 QB’s listed where starter un-assumed).
Arizona Cardinals- Matt Leinhart- 2006 Round 1, #10 overall
Atlanta Falcons- Michael Vick- 2001 Round 1, #1 overall
Baltimore Ravens- Steve McNair- 1995 Round 1, #3 overall
Buffalo Bills- J.P. Losman- 2004 Round 1 #22 overall
Carolina Panthers- Jake Delhomme- Undrafted (Signed with Saints in 1998)
- David Carr- 2002 Round 1, #1 overall
Chicago Bears- Rex Grossman- 2003 Round 1, #22 overall
Cincinnati Bengals- Carson Palmer- 2003 Round 1, #1 overall
Cleveland Browns- Charlie Frye- 2005 Round 3, #67 overall
- Brady Quinn- 2007 Round 1, #22 overall
Dallas Cowboys- Tony Romo- Undrafted (Signed with Cowboys in 2003)
Detroit Lions- Jon Kitna- Undrafted (Signed with Seahawks in 1997)
Denver Broncos- Jay Cutler- 2006 Round 1, #11 overall
Houston Texans- Matt Schaub- 2004 Round 3, #90 overall
Green Bay Packers- Brett Favre- 1991 Round 2, #33 overall
Indianapolis Colts- Peyton Manning- 1998 Round 1, #1 overall
Jacksonville Jaguars- Byron Leftwhich- 2003 Round 1, #7 overall
Minnesota Vikings- Tavaris Jackson- 2006 Round 2, #64 overall
New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees- 2001 Round 2, #32 overall
New York Giants- Eli Manning- 2004 Round 1, #1 overall
Miami Dolphins- Daunte Culpepper- 1999 Round 1, #11 overall
New England Patriots- Tom Brady- 2000 Round 6, #199 overall
Philadelphia Eagles- Donovan McNabb- 1999 Round 1, #2 overall
San Francisco 49ers- Alex Smith- 2005 Round 1, #1 overall
New York Jets- Chad Pennington- 2000 Round 1, #18 overall
Oakland Raiders- Jamarcus Russell- 2007 Round 1, #1 overall
Pittsburgh Steelers- Ben Roethlisberger- 2004 Round 1, #11 overall
Seattle Seahawks- Matt Hassleback- 1998 Round 6, # 187 overall
St. Louis Rams- Marc Bulger- 2000 Round 6, # 168 overall
San Diego Chargers- Phillip River- 2004 Round 1, #4 overall
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Chris Simms- 2003 Round 3, #97 overall
- Jeff Garcia- Undrafted (Signed with 49ers in 1999)
Tennessee Titans- Vince Young- 2006 Round 1, #3 overall
Washington Redskins- Jason Campbell- 2005 Round 1, #25 overall
Summary:
1st round picks: 21/34= 61.8%
2nd round picks: 3/34= 8.8%
3rd round picks: 3/34= 8.8%
4th round picks: 0/34= 0%
5th round picks: 0/34= 0%
6th round picks: 3/34= 8.8%
7th round picks: 0/34= 0%
Undrafted: 4/34=11.8%
21 of the quarterbacks were 1st round picks, 4 went undrafted, and only 3 were 2nd rounders. Of course there are always exceptions (Brett Favre, Drew Brees), but in general, quarterbacks selected in second round aren’t likely to pan out. You have to question the Dolphins, Eagles, and the Lions using second round picks on quarterbacks. The Dolphins could have taken Brady Quinn in the first round and then taken a Dwayne Jarrett in the second round. The Eagles had no reason taking Kolb. They could have added Jarrett or selected Tony Ugoh for the offensive line. Out of these three second round picks, I think Drew Stanton will end up the best of the three. But with so many dynamic defensive players on the board, you really have to question taking a quarterback in the second round.
Predictions
Offensive Rookie of the Year- Calvin Johnson (WR), Detroit Lions
Defensive Rookie of the Year- Patrick Willis (LB), San Francisco 49ers
Best Picks of the Draft
Adrian Peterson (1st round, 7th overall)
Strength, speed, vision, you name it, this kid has everything. I think he is already one of the 10 best running backs in the league.
Greg Olsen (1st round, 31st overall)
Tall (6 foot 6), built (254 lbs), and speedy (4.51 40 time). There isn’t a doubt in my mind Greg Olsen will become a dynamic tight end in the NFL. Just for comparison, Dwayne Jarrett is two inches shorter (6-4), 35 pounds lighter (219 lbs), and has a slower 40 time (4.62).
Paul Posluszny (2nd round, 34th overall)
I’m shocked he fell out of the 1st round. The Bills were seriously considering taking the two-time Bednarik
Award winner (given annually to the nation’s best defensive player), in the first round. I think a lot of teams are going to regret passing on him. 
Ryan Kalil (2nd round, 59th overall)
There is no reason the best center in the draft should fall all the way to no.59. An instant starter for the Panthers, Kalil will become a perennial pro-bowler.
Buster Davis (3rd round, 69th overall)
A lot of teams passed on Buster because of his size (or lack thereof), but watch for him to become a superstar (a la London Fletcher).
Michael Bush (4th round, 100th overall)
A surefire first round pick if he had stayed healthy, the Raiders nabbing Michael Bush in the 4th round is absolute theft. The Raiders are stocked at running back and will let Bush take as much time as he needs to heel and get back to a 100%. A great pick.
Worst Picks of the Draft
Amobi Okoye (1st round, 10th overall)
Okoye is undersized and I don’t like drafting on potential. I find it unacceptable that the Texans didn’t draft an offensive lineman here. They easily could have moved down and taken Joe Staley later in the first round. The Texans again avoid filling their greatest need. I have a feeling it’s going to be a long year for Matt Schaub.
Michael Griffin (1st round, 19th overall)
Talk about a reach, Griffin was a late first round pick in almost all mock drafts and the Titans reach to take him at no.19. Honestly, I think this is the worst pick of the first round, maybe the whole draft. How do the Titans not take a wide receiver here? Vince Young is a developing player and he just lost one of his best receivers in Drew Bennett, and a dynamite back in Travis Henry. How do the Titans pass up Robert Meachem (6’2, 2.39 40 time)? Griffin will be a solid defensive player but not taking an offensive player here will set back Vince Young’s development.
Craig Davis (1st round, 30th overall)
A.J. Smith, you’ve proven you know your stuff, but this pick really makes me scratch my head. No one, and I mean NO ONE, had Craig Davis going in the first round. Even if Davis is your guy, you could have moved down all the way to the middle of the second round and still selected him. The Chargers will regret passing on Dwayne Jarrett.
Kevin Kolb (2nd round, 36th overall)
With their first pick in the draft, the Eagles take a quarterback? This is a terrible, terrible pick, in so many ways. The Eagles could have given Donovan an offensive weapon with this pick but instead, they select a player that won’t pay any dividends on the field for years to come. Terrible pick.
Teams with the best drafts
Buffalo Bills
Off-season departures of RB Willis McGahee and LB London Fletcher created huge voids at running back and linebacker. RB Marshawn Lynch and LB Paul Posluszny are tremendous picks and fill areas of great need.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had an unbelievable draft. Swapping picks with the Jets gave the Panthers four first day draft picks. LB Jon Beason could be an immediate starter and fills an important need due to Dan Morgan’s long history of concussions. The Panthers filled their second round with Trojans, selecting USC WR Dwayne Jarrett and C Ryan Kalil. Both players will be instant starters. The Panthers’ best pick of the draft might end up being DE Charles Johnson.
San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Willis will solidify the 49ers linebacking crew and will become a perennial pro bowler. I think the 49ers also made a great move trading up for OT Joe Staley, an area of great need for the 49ers. The 49ers’ best move of the draft was trading their 4th round pick for WR Darrell Jackson, a surefire no.1 wide receiver. Watch out for the 49ers offense next season. The combination of QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, and WR Darrel Jackson may make the 49ers one of the league’s most dynamic offenses.
Teams with the worst drafts
Houston Texans
The Texans needed to get help on the offensive line or at cornerback early in the draft and they didn’t get it done. I think Okoye is overrated and they filled the rest of their draft with mediocre talent.
Philadelphia Eagles
Although I really like the Eagles’ third round selection of power back, RB Tony Hunt, nothing can justify the Eagles taking a quarterback with the 36th pick in the draft. The Eagles have a small window to make a run at a championship and they drafted a player that won’t help them for years to come.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans had a huge hole at wide receiver and they passed up on a potential superstar and hometown hero in Robert Meachem. RB Chris Henry was also a huge reach in the second round and all the wide receivers the Titans drafted in later rounds are mediocre. With a terrible draft and off-season (not to mention the Madden Curse set to wreck havoc on Vince Young next season), look for the Titans to struggle next year.
Teams that will most regret not addressing urgent needs
New York Giants
Although CB Aaron Ross and WR Steve Smith are tremendous picks, you have to wonder how the Giants passed up OT Joe Staley with the departure of starter Luke Petigout in the off-season. The Giants had an equally desperate need at linebacker.
Indianapolis Colts
I think Anthony Gonzalez fits the Colts offense perfectly and that Tony Ugoh is a solid addition to the Colts’ offensive line. However, after losing both starting cornerbacks, LB Cato June, and needing a lot of help at defensive line, the Colts may have made a tremendous mistake not choosing to address their defense needs. With their chief playoff foe, the New England Patriots, re-tooling their offensive weaponry, look for the gaping holes in the Colts defense to prevent a repeat trip to the Super Bowl.
Mystery Team
Cleveland Browns
There has to be a reason 21 teams passed on Brady Quinn. Everyone has been complimenting Browns’ GM, Phil Savage, on trading up for Brady Quinn, but will Browns fans be happy if Brady struggles mightily and the Cowboys take their likely top 10 pick in next year’s draft? This could also be a great move. People forget that for much of the year Brady Quinn was considered the consensus overall no.1 pick in the draft. What impresses me is the kid’s strength and attitude. Only time will tell on this one.
Best Trades of the Draft
1. New England snags Randy Moss for a 4th round pick
2. Carolina Panthers swap first round picks with the Jets and are able to nab the best center in the draft, Ryan Kalil, with the extra pick in the 2nd round.
3. Dallas Cowboys trade the Browns the no.22 pick in the first round for a second rounder and the Browns’ first rounder in next year’s draft (more than likely a top 10 pick)
4. 49ers get Darrel Jackson for only a 4th round pick.
The 2nd Round Quarterback
Why do teams take quarterbacks in the second round? It seems like most of the quarterbacks in the NFL were either first round picks or fell through the cracks and were drafted in later rounds or even went undrafted. Scouts spend a significant amount of time analyzing top-tier quarterbacks’ abilities. If those abilities don’t warrant a first round pick, why waste a second rounder on a quarterback? I would much rather take a quarterback later in the draft whose skills might not have been adequately assessed. Let’s take a look at all of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL (2 QB’s listed where starter un-assumed).
Arizona Cardinals- Matt Leinhart- 2006 Round 1, #10 overall
Atlanta Falcons- Michael Vick- 2001 Round 1, #1 overall
Baltimore Ravens- Steve McNair- 1995 Round 1, #3 overall
Buffalo Bills- J.P. Losman- 2004 Round 1 #22 overall
Carolina Panthers- Jake Delhomme- Undrafted (Signed with Saints in 1998)
- David Carr- 2002 Round 1, #1 overall
Chicago Bears- Rex Grossman- 2003 Round 1, #22 overall
Cincinnati Bengals- Carson Palmer- 2003 Round 1, #1 overall
Cleveland Browns- Charlie Frye- 2005 Round 3, #67 overall
- Brady Quinn- 2007 Round 1, #22 overall
Dallas Cowboys- Tony Romo- Undrafted (Signed with Cowboys in 2003)
Detroit Lions- Jon Kitna- Undrafted (Signed with Seahawks in 1997)
Denver Broncos- Jay Cutler- 2006 Round 1, #11 overall
Houston Texans- Matt Schaub- 2004 Round 3, #90 overall
Green Bay Packers- Brett Favre- 1991 Round 2, #33 overall
Indianapolis Colts- Peyton Manning- 1998 Round 1, #1 overall
Jacksonville Jaguars- Byron Leftwhich- 2003 Round 1, #7 overall
Minnesota Vikings- Tavaris Jackson- 2006 Round 2, #64 overall
New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees- 2001 Round 2, #32 overall
New York Giants- Eli Manning- 2004 Round 1, #1 overall
Miami Dolphins- Daunte Culpepper- 1999 Round 1, #11 overall
New England Patriots- Tom Brady- 2000 Round 6, #199 overall
Philadelphia Eagles- Donovan McNabb- 1999 Round 1, #2 overall
San Francisco 49ers- Alex Smith- 2005 Round 1, #1 overall
New York Jets- Chad Pennington- 2000 Round 1, #18 overall
Oakland Raiders- Jamarcus Russell- 2007 Round 1, #1 overall
Pittsburgh Steelers- Ben Roethlisberger- 2004 Round 1, #11 overall
Seattle Seahawks- Matt Hassleback- 1998 Round 6, # 187 overall
St. Louis Rams- Marc Bulger- 2000 Round 6, # 168 overall
San Diego Chargers- Phillip River- 2004 Round 1, #4 overall
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Chris Simms- 2003 Round 3, #97 overall
- Jeff Garcia- Undrafted (Signed with 49ers in 1999)
Tennessee Titans- Vince Young- 2006 Round 1, #3 overall
Washington Redskins- Jason Campbell- 2005 Round 1, #25 overall
Summary:
1st round picks: 21/34= 61.8%
2nd round picks: 3/34= 8.8%
3rd round picks: 3/34= 8.8%
4th round picks: 0/34= 0%
5th round picks: 0/34= 0%
6th round picks: 3/34= 8.8%
7th round picks: 0/34= 0%
Undrafted: 4/34=11.8%
21 of the quarterbacks were 1st round picks, 4 went undrafted, and only 3 were 2nd rounders. Of course there are always exceptions (Brett Favre, Drew Brees), but in general, quarterbacks selected in second round aren’t likely to pan out. You have to question the Dolphins, Eagles, and the Lions using second round picks on quarterbacks. The Dolphins could have taken Brady Quinn in the first round and then taken a Dwayne Jarrett in the second round. The Eagles had no reason taking Kolb. They could have added Jarrett or selected Tony Ugoh for the offensive line. Out of these three second round picks, I think Drew Stanton will end up the best of the three. But with so many dynamic defensive players on the board, you really have to question taking a quarterback in the second round.
Predictions
Offensive Rookie of the Year- Calvin Johnson (WR), Detroit Lions
Defensive Rookie of the Year- Patrick Willis (LB), San Francisco 49ers
6 comments:
What a great draft for the Bills. I was bummed at first when we got rid of Willis McGhee, but I think it's a great move now. He had already torn his ACL multiple times and he's bound to wear down soon enough. Now we have a dynamic running back in Marshawn and we got big, bad, PAUL POSLUSZNY. Funny thing is, I was hoping we would take Posluszny in the first round and he ended up being there for us in the second. Watch out for the BILLS!
I totally agree about the Colts. They HAD to go defense in the early rounds and they blew it! Randy Moss, Stallworth, and the rest of the Pats are going to TORCH them in the playoffs next year!
Seriously, what are the TITANS DOING? We had such a tremendous finish to the end of last year and all that momentum is gone! First it was Pacman, and now it is a terrible, terrible draft. I thought the reason we signed Nick Harper was so we didn't HAVE to grab a defensive back early in the draft. Vince Young has NO ONE TO THROW TOO. Robert Meachem would have been so awesome. Now we are going to have a terrible record.
That video of Shaq, Lebron, and Dwight dancing is ridiculous. Wow.
Your quarterback theory makes a lot of sense. People would think that most quarterbacks are drafted in the first round but that isn't true. This year's draft is a representative example, 2 quarterbacks were taken in the first round and 3 were taken in the second round. In general, the number of quarterbacks that are drafted in other rounds far exceeds the number drafted in the first round yet as you stated, over 60% of starting quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. It really doesn't make sense to spend a second round pick on a quarterback when you would be just as likely to nab a potential starter if you sign an undrafted free agent. Good stuff.
Michael Bush = Steal of the Draft
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